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God, No Wonder the Stock Market’s Collapsing

God, No Wonder the Stock Market’s Collapsing

UBS Warburg asked 85 CIOs, 50 in the US and 35 in Europe, a bunch of questions and none of the answers were very pretty. It's stuff like this that drove the stock market to the precipice Monday sacrificing whatever gains were left from bubble mania and driving the Nasdaq to a six-year low.

The average projection of long-term IT spending growth is a measly 4%, down from 15% during the past decade. (Be-ware the clutch that thinks it's more like flat to down.)

Next year it's more like 3.6%, they said, when IDC is cheerily at 9%, down from 11%.

Normal growth, now defined as something like 10%, won't happen before 2004. (Most of the Europeans think 2004 or, God help us, later.)

Forget 2H02 spending. It's either like the first half or worse.

The survey persuaded the brokerage to give up the foolish notion that, if recovery ever comes, services would recover first, then software, then hardware. It's not going to be as orderly as all that. Anyway, outsourcing is starting to lose its cachet.

By the way, IDC expects high-end server spending to decline 10% this year.

The Warburg 85, especially the Ameri-cans, gave Unix servers a higher priority than Intel servers when spending returns, then turned around and said they'd actually buy Intel. Warburg thinks Unix is probably playing catch-up and that the trend is Intel.

Storage is also a priority and in Europe the communications infrastructure.

Forget visionary software implementations and anything that looks like a PC upgrade cycle any time soon. The War-burg 85 are all over the place on growth in PC spending next year, averaging 13%, more than the 11% Warburg's projecting. Notebooks look better off than desktops. XP's not an influencer. Dell's the preferred supplier in the US, Compaq in Europe

J2EE outstrips .NET in the US, but not in Europe, but then again Europe is more uncertain about either. Warburg says .NET is catching up.

Microsoft, IBM and Oracle were rated important suppliers. Warburg was surprised that the Linux community didn't rate.

Cost in general is the watchword. So are fix what you're got and buy as you go.

More Stories By Maureen O'Gara

Maureen O'Gara the most read technology reporter for the past 20 years, is the Cloud Computing and Virtualization News Desk editor of SYS-CON Media. She is the publisher of famous "Billygrams" and the editor-in-chief of "Client/Server News" for more than a decade. One of the most respected technology reporters in the business, Maureen can be reached by email at maureen(at)sys-con.com or paperboy(at)g2news.com, and by phone at 516 759-7025. Twitter: @MaureenOGara

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